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War and peace and the dog who didn’t bark — 9 Comments

  1. Iran has begun the installation of 6,000 advanced centrifuges in its Natanz uranium enrichment facility

    As all you know after 1991 war with Iraq and 13 years of sanction most those nuclear supplier are reluctant to supply bits and part of this technology to rough states, and after 2003 US had managed to punish those western companies who had the technology and sold it to Iraq.

    What happen after is the market of this technology are well monitored due to fears of terrorist acts, so it’s hard to believe that Iran have managed “the installation of 6,000 advanced centrifuges in its Natanz uranium enrichment facility”?

    The only source for Iran to get some left behind stuff from Iraq as UN reported that the monitored sites in Iraq left unsecured and was looted and as many predicted that the best who got those materials are Iranians for many reasons one of them is her men in control and on the ground in Iraq with US troops advancing inside Iraq in 2003 represented by Bader Militia and others, Definitely worth noting in 1991 chaos after Saddam tropes forced pushed from Kuwait many factories and assets when and sold to Iranian like cigarettes factory in Sulymaniah north, and in 2003 Iraqi T72 Russian Tank made sold in very cheap prices and you need to guesses where those hundreds of T72 headed to?

  2. Yea, they just might push their enriched uranium to close together, have a critical mass and while no nuclear explosion, have a little localized chain reaction without the benefit of shielding. It’s happened before and could happen again.

  3. Everytime I see a mideast analysis, it never includes key things. It always argues from the information of the main stream media. Drawn from the huge amount of noise that everyone generates, and doesn’t draw on any updated history.

    Not one of them gives a good idea of whats really going on. Isreal is an excuse, and not the main issue.

    Open up a map. World leaders and planners are not watching cnn, or reading the ny times, or drowning in the noise. They are thinking about their countries, their goals, the other countries actions, and so on. All tied to looking at maps.

    Israel has no strategic value, and no real resources. its not the real target, but a convenient bait.

    Go back in the news, start looking when things were a lot cooler. Just about the time that the bombs went off in Spain and that changed the state to be favorable to communism.

    However, why did everyone else ‘wake up’, why suddenly did every group we almost forgot just up and went wacko? I actually told friends and such that that would happen, because it was obvious to me what was going on.

    Again. open a map. India is tentatively sitting on both sides of the fence. Pakistan is also. However, India and Pakistan are not part of the weapons distribution of the largest weapons producer in the world. So they are noise.

    Look at the map. India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, [Iran], Iraq, turkey.

    Any person with even rudimentary history, and tactics, should be able to see that all those countries make a one country wide line in the sand that prevents weapons and such distributions to proceed to the states that use them, and the states victimized for them in favor of stability.

    If you go on google maps, look at the border between turkey and Iraq… if you notice, turkey is industrial, and built up. Lots of roads, and whammo, they end at the borders. Why? Because the other states are not industrial, or rather haven’t matured past natural resources as a means.

    There is a major difference between states that have industries, and states that only have natural resources (or mostly). Industrial states, and mature states need stabilization. Their money cant be made when everything is up in the air. when things are up in the air, risk drives up costs artificially.

    The other states are natural resources states. However, the KEY state that everyone ignores is RUSSIA. May I ask whose rockets hammas is using? Whose semtec explosives? Whose experts? Who is closest to these regimes?

    The big elephant in the room is Russia, and if you include it in your analysis, everything in the middle east makes a lot of sense.

    Russia has two major money making means. Weapons and war related tech and expertise, and raw materials. They have not developed more and cant take their raw materials and make products out of them and increase their value that way.

    An artist can take some mud, and gravel, fire, and play around and turn valuless material into things that people will pay thousands. That’s the key to getting past selling natural resources.

    Well, weapons sales, and natural resources are complimentary. How do you increase the amount of money you make in oil? Destabilize. How do you increase what you get for your metals and such? Destabilize states that could compete.

    Well, in order to do that, you have to deliver weapons. And you have to deliver them in large quantities, and replace them when captured. (As they did in less than a week after Israel won the war, confiscated the weapons, and then gave them to another country).

    There are three ways to move weapons and such. Sea, air, and land. They are not equivalent. By sea, your ships can be sunk without being able to say anything. They can be boarded by other states as you travel. But sea is a lot better than air.

    Air can be tracked, and air gives an upper limit as to what can be moved. So land is the favored way. which is why they are screaming about Iran… and why they are posturing about the sea above Iran… and why they want the tiny resource poor lands that are to the left of the sea…

    The only land connection from Russia, to the middle east, and Africa, is through those countries, the Caspian sea, and Iran.

    Turkey is also a possibility, but I pointed out turkey has industry. So they favor stability if they think they can get it. And stability is what the US is offering them if these ‘wars’ succeed.

    Want the Darfur problem to stop? Well, how? they say stop it, but they wont let you go to war over it. so how do you stop it? you cant unless you act. So what is the fulcrum point for darfur, and most of Africa, the sudan, yemen, and the other places?

    The source of weapons and material coming over land. Coming over land the material can be moved totally uncounted. You can move millions of tons of things and no one can track you.

    This is why Russia is so upset as to the missle defense.. it puts a radar and tracking close eough that over land will be monitored…

    This is why they suddenly went cold war on us… they thought that by closing the delievery door, we betrayed them.

    this is why they bombed spain. To put a friendly state in charge of the straight of gibralter. Its why chavez will build military equipment. You have to keep Africa supplied, and shps from chavez, are easier than north sea, and down Africa cost directly from Russia. Its why they drove to set bombs off in turkey (Starting in Sweden), and failed.

    the moment we declared to go after Iran was the moment everything went wackaloon.

    I told my isreali friend, who loves my analysis, since he comes into my office and says, how did you know?

    Everything all over is heating up to a big conflict. And everything has heated up so that if something occurs in one place, something will happen in another place to complicate it, and seem that it was natural and being ignored.

    So north korea has made probes into south korea.
    Chavez has threatened Columbia with tanks
    Chinese are after Tibet

    The list goes on quite long… assassinations out of the blue… troops moving around… deals dissolving..

    Its so bad that western socialist nations are even declaring that they should be more capitalist. Economists in Sweden chastised the feminists for being communists and not realizeing capitalism has done what they sought and done it despite their termiting the place.

    The key is that staets don’t act generally on the level of rhetoric. They are about maps and the movement of material .

    I have tried to explain this negation of the importance of thought… but most people thinktheir thoughts are so important that they don’t realize that like jacskon brown said… “Among the thoughts that crowd your mind, there won’t be many that ever really matter”

    All the surmising from the noise arguments will not make sense of things. Everything now is a tight game of playing the “great game”.

    The cold war didn’t end… it became the silent war….

    Now its slowly moving to a nuclear conflict… or haven’t you noticed suddenly out of nowhere scientists now talking a new point to the nuclear winter… nuclear ozone depletion… of course when your read stuff from the 50s and 60s where the point was to convince the west that such would never even be possible because of the outcome.

    But take a minute and read the science reports of the recovery after Chernobyl. How many years? Read about how long it took for them to build and start living in Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Then remember that the regimes we are talking about were capable of torturing their own people by the millions (and we are not their own people!).

    Then take a moment to notice that russias new tank is nuclear heat shielded… ours aren’t… then notice that they have all new weaponry, but it’s the same name as the last series… so people in the west think the stuff is junk. New torpedo. New nuclear icbm, new nuclear sams, new submarine, new tank, new bomber (of which they have probed Alaska today, and have probed other states too in the past year).

    There is a hell of a lot more…

    One only has to look… and read what is not given to you on a silver platter.

    heck, several years ago, china put out a war tactics manual that discussed harming enemies through products and claiming it was errors. So how much damage did lead paint do to the future competitors? How about other things? Right now we are getting drugs that are killing people.

    The issues with the states around isreal is to insure that everything is too hot to go into iraq… period…

    If isreal was not there, what would be the situation in the middle east?

    so analyse things based on bigger strokes… and don’t deny the existence of manipulative states other than the US… the self hate rhetoric is pretty much from their publishing houses. Oleg the gentleman now running the new communist party in Russia, gave an interesting interview in forbes where he pointed out that Russia owned the 40 top publishing houses, and more than 4000 others.

    Let me know if that can skew things or not?

    The other thing oleg warned was that Russia had been stockpiling things like diamonds and gold. The latter is what is key…

    If they are doing the old mercantilist war thing… or economic war thing… then the drop of the dollar has had most hard wealth move to gold…

    Gold is at record highs… what would happen if at a key point, Russia flooded the market with its 50 year stockpile of gold?

    You may end up seeing 30 years of growth get wiped out…

    What if china decides not to take any more dollars? As it has started to do…

    The last depression almost had us go socialist… what would a modern one with dumber people do?

    And they are dumber… the people of my grandparents time read authors like james fenimore cooper as teen novels, and today adults cant read past 5th grade.

    All you have to do is open your eyes, and see.

  4. camojack… not this time… russia and others have signed pacts like what got the world into wwii… and russia has said that it will use nukes to defend its freinds.

    or didnt you hear that?

  5. kosovo will heat up next week… the last super plane load of aid from moscow is arriving tomorrow….

    Third plane with Russian humanitarian aid lands in Serbia
    14:0208/ 04/ 2008

    BELGRADE, April 8 (RIA Novosti) – A third IL-76 cargo plane of the Russian Emergencies Ministry carrying 40 tons of humanitarian aid, mostly rice, to ethnic Serbs in Kosovo landed at a Belgrade airport on Tuesday.
    A fourth and final shipment of aid including medicines and sugar is to arrive on April 10.

    A total of 150 metric tons of food including canned meat and fish, baby food, rice, and sugar, along with substantial amounts of medical equipment, medicines, disinfectants and other healthcare products will be delivered to Belgrade. The supplies are worth around 40 million rubles ($1.7 million).

    and just so you know that china is also playing games.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/world/asia/28tibet.html?hp

    Some journalists said one monk complained that the government had planted fake monks in the monastery to talk to the reporters.

    they did this before.. if you hunt you can see monks with swords.. except they arent tibetan swords, and monks wouldnt carry swords (not that sect).

    do some digging and you will find news as to the press divulging that russia runs all the heroin trade in europe.. as well as a lot of the south american drug trade. or havent you noticed the political side of the groups there AND here in the US?

    Some 60 tonnes of heroin a year pass through Tajikistan with the assistance of part of the Tajik political elite and senior Russian military officers stationed as members of a Russian force on the border according to Anton Surikov, a Russian official with close links to Russian military intelligence.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europe/corrupt-russian-officers-profit-in-heroin-trade-752880.html

    you have to put the pieces together yourself.. AND NOT JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS other than to be precautionary… or to avoid being surprised.

    there is no way to actually know fromwhere common people stand how things are really going to pan out.

    like nixon said.
    the average person is like the small child in the family.

    the world is starting to divide into sides again… that ususlaly presages a large conflict… and the idea here is to stretch the US too thin… something in korea, south america, and middle east…

    in fact.. dig deep and read biographies and you will find that russia picked up with the mullahs after hitler was done for.

  6. 95% of Russian weaponry are obsolete. This new tank exists only as demonstration prototype. A “new” ballistic missile is actually 25 years old. Russian weaponry lobby is powerful, but most of its boasting are actually Potemkin willages.

  7. Most of “Grad” rockets in Syrian arsenal are made in Iran. They are copies of Russian design, just as anty-tank RPG, Scad ballistic missiles and practically all other weaponry in Syrian possession. New shippment from Russia include air-defence rocket complexes, also obsolete and incapable to prevent modern precision-guided aviabombs used in recent Israeli air strike.

  8. Sergey, it turns out that the new stuff has the same designation as the old stuff. and i know you know as well as i do, that US shermans were very inferior to the long barrels of the german tanks.

    we have no idea how many they have made or not. period. with places like yamentau mountain, there is no way to know.

    according to the CFE they can have 6300, tanks and 11,000 armored vehicles. but they just crapped out on the CFE… so there is no limit.

    how about the new miltary base next to estonia?

    If you look at the Google Earth map and follow the route A-212 to the west of the Russian town Pskov, you can notice a secret Russian military base not far from the border with Estonia. The Economist magazine states that to the north of the road you can see an oval that is nothing but a “shadow from the satellite dish f at least 66 feet diameter” with 5 small and 1 medium dishes situated nearby. Six years ago the place where today the base stands was empty. The magazine also states that this object isn’t listed in any catalogs. This means that the base was built recently.

    The Economist referring to the important western politician, states that the location of the base allows monitoring the super modern sputnik Inmarsat 4 F-2.

    Considered one of the strongest sputniks in the International naval satellite navigation, sputnik Inmarsat transmits a large amount of information from different continents.

    “If you live in the USA or Europe and your computer has a USB-port, the information you send most probably goes through Inmarsat 4 F-2”, – the magazine says.
    -thats pravda…

    then who cut all those cables?

    russias new icbm has the same designation as the old one.

    Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said earlier this month that Russia expected to test-fire a mobile version of its Topol-M ballistic missile this year and that production of the new weapon could be commissioned in 2005.

    how many can they make with old material they didnt destroy (and we gave them money to)?

    though most of their work has been in tactical weapons. they outnumber all other states in them.

    The RS-24 missile was launched from the Plesetsk launch facility in northern Russia and its test warheads successfully hit designated targets on the Kura testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula some 4,340 miles east, Strategic Missile Forces spokesman Alexander Vovk told The Associated Press.

    ==================

    Existing Topol-M missiles carry a single nuclear warhead and are capable of hitting targets more than 6,000 miles away.

    ==================

    The Strategic Missile Forces said the RS-24 missile is designed to replace Soviet-built missiles with multiple nuclear warheads, such as RS-18 and RS-20. Those missiles are known in the West as the SS-19 Stiletto and the SS-18 Satan.

    The improved Topol-M missile launched on 29 May was fired from a mobile launcher at the Plesetsk launch site in northwestern Russia. Its test warhead was reported to have landed on target about 3,400 miles down range on the Far Eastern Kamchatka Peninsula.

    The TOPOL-M – given the Soviet designation RS-24 and the NATO designation SS-27 – also has a submarine-launched variant known as the Bulava (NATO SS-N-30).The naval missile will be carried by the new submarines of the Borey class. Statements from Russian officials indicate that the Topol-M and Bulava are being upgraded with new warheads and other countermeasures (probably decoys) to counter the U.S. ballistic missile defense system now being deployed. If these missiles are specifically intended to overcome U.S. defenses, their warheads can be expected to have maneuvering re-entry vehicles, called MaRVs in the strategic lexicon.

    MaRV warheads were developed by the United States during the Cold War in response to Soviet ballistic missile defenses, but were never installed on ICBMs.

    The original land-based Topol-M missile was deployed in small numbers, probably because of technical problems and large cost overruns. The first Topol-Ms were placed in service in 1997. The land-based Topol-M now appears to be in production to replace obsolete (and questionably reliable) fixed-silo ICBMs left over from mid-Cold War era and eventually the SS-25, the Soviet-era’s first generation land-mobile ICBM.

    then there is the new aircraft carrier…

    The Chiorny Oriol (Black Eagle) was shown for the first time in ’97

    on top of that — there’s the completely new T-95. Russian Defence Minister Marshal Igor Sergeyev announced that a radically new main battle tank designated the T-95 has been developed. All of the technical data, outline and configuration features of the T-95 are still secret but weight seems to be about 50 tons, with length and width similar to the existing T-72.

    so the new t95 has the same name “t95” as the old one, but its a new machine!!

    just as you can change the name of something and people will think its something new and different…

    one can keep the name of something different the same, and people will think its the old thing.

    Although the US has a similar tank in the pipeline — a 40 tonne design with only 2 crew (both in the hull) and with a similar, uninhabited turret arrangement — it seems the Russians are further along the development line.

    so for people that are supposed to be behind, they built our next tank before we did.

    read here from Janes.

    http://www.janes.com/extracts/extract/jaa/jaa_1200.html

    Full technical data, outline and configuration features of the new T-95 MBT are not available. At the same time, a representative of Uralvagonzavod said the tank has a whole new design, rather than a modification of an existing vehicle. It is claimed that the new T-95 MBT weighs 50 tons, its length and width would be likely about the same as the current T-72, T-80 and T-90 MBTs. But the main feature of the new tank lies in its radically new configuration.

    all the buzz around it is that its full of stolen tech… and that different parts of that tech comes from korea, china, etc.

    and there are NEW sams…

    a later designation than the s400 that is also nuclear.. s-500…

    Later versions of the S-400 system will most likely be of the Samoderzhets family. With the merger of Almaz and Antey a few years ago, a whole wealth of SAM experience was merged, and Samoderzhets will be the first hardware example of that merger. Samoderzhets will be an S-400 system incorporating a towed TEL carrying two 9M82M (SA-X-23 GIANT) ATBMs. This will provide a far more robust ATBM capability for an S-400 battery, and potentially increase the export value of the system as well.

    given that history has shown that they like to build things and let us think they havent yet. remember?

    anywahy… it should be interesting in the weeks after may first when they do a huge military parade like in stalins era in red square.

    how about the bombers invading indentity space probing defenses?

    we in the west dont particularly pay attention to details. which is why keeping the same name on something different works. it also allows writers to look up a name, then find tons of stuff on the old thing, and think the old thing is the thing that they are considering.

    as to your second post… you know that they sell cut down syustems. they are scamming their customers… but heck, after the sale is made and it doesnt work, they can always do it again.

    the point is that they are and have never been transparent enough for us to actually know the same information that they know from the US.

    syria, and yemen, and others, are their patsies. they always end up in the bad place getting stiffed with the bill if it doesnt work out, and losing the meal to someone else if it does.

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