Thoughts on the current New York City crises: hatchet man, and ebola doctor
I haven’t read much speculation about this, but isn’t it likely that the man who attacked two NYC policemen with a hatchet was trying to behead them, and missed? And then was shot by the other police before he got a chance to take better aim?
As for Dr. Craig Spencer, I fault the CDC primarily for not requiring strict quarantine on medical personnel returning from Africa, and on Doctors Without Borders as well, even more than I fault the doctor himself. He was doing what he was told, monitoring his temperature. Until his temperature elevated, according to the guidelines, he was allowed to go about his business.
I’ve said many times I think that people should act with more caution and quarantine themselves for 21 days, and I also blame Dr. Spencer for not doing that. But until the CDC makes them do it, they’re not going to for the most part. Because ebola patients are only considered contagious when they develop symptoms, and because the first symptom is usually temperature elevation, there is probably a very low chance of anyone (including his girlfriend) actually having caught ebola from Dr. Spencer.
But why on earth take the chance? Because the chance is not zero, and the stakes are very very high. Low probability, but high risk in that sense. It does not seem that much of a hardship to quarantine, and certainly health care professionals ought to understand. If a person is willing to take the time and make the effort to go work in Africa during this epidemic, why wouldn’t he/she be willing to relax in relative seclusion for 21 days afterward, to avoid any risk to his/her own country, the expense of contact tracing, and the anxiety to millions of people?
It also occurs to me that, as Nina Pham and Amber Vinson recover, they will be able to donate plasma too, if they wish. Pham has the same blood type as Dr. Brantly, but Amber Vinson has a different blood type (if I recall correctly, she was unable to get a transfusion from him, unlike Pham), and that will expand the possibilities for transfusion for future cases. And, as more and more survivors emerge from this mess, more transfusions will be possible. (Trying to look on the bright side, here; I know there’s a pony somewhere.)
Next, we have some New York City humor. This one’s not a joke; it’s a real quote:
Meanwhile, Robert Cedano, the super in Spencer’s building, said firefighters took the doctor’s door off its hinges when they removed him.
“Oh, lovely,” said Brooke Christensen, who lives in the building, after learning about her neighbor.
“I’m not concerned,” she said. “I’ve had no fluid exchanges with my neighbors.”
Also:
The CDC and the politicians keep reassuring us that there’s no danger. But with their track record, why would anyone believe a thing they say about ebola at this point?
As I’ve already written, I actually don’t think anyone will catch ebola from Dr. Spencer. But I don’t believe that because Frieden or the Mayor or the Governor of New York told me so. Yes, I actually believe that health authorities around the world are most likely correct that ebola is hard to catch except through direct contact with body fluids in the later stages of disease. But I also am encouraged to believe it because I have observed the pattern of contagion in this country so far, and the only people who have caught it here have been health care workers who attended patients in later stages (even though those workers were wearing protective gear). No one else—even family members of Thomas Eric Duncan, who were exposed without protection when he was far sicker than Dr. Spencer is—has gotten it. That indicates to me that the disease’s contagiousness starts very low and rises quickly and exponentially but certainly not immediately.
I realize, of course, that we’re dealing with a very small “n” here, but it’s a very encouraging trend that backs up the idea that casual contact in early stages is not going to spread the disease.
We’re getting a chance to see, I guess. A real-world experiment, one I wish we were not experiencing.
Its another case of leftist who want lots of rules, but only apply them to others who need them, as the rules dont apply to them…
this seems to be a very common behavior
from the leftist bicycle rider who killed a woman by speeding in central park
to all the similar left liberals who ride their bikes to save the planet, but do so the wrong way, on the sidwalk, run red lights, etc
rules are for other people to follow
rules are for them to make up to impose on others
but for them?
NEO As for Dr. Craig Spencer, I fault the CDC primarily for not requiring strict quarantine on medical personnel returning from Africa, and on Doctors Without Borders as well, even more than I fault the doctor himself.
the CDC has no enforcement branch (and rightly so – or we would be wondering what they need with hollow point bullets like the post office and IRS)
Turns out Doctors without Borders…
16 Members of Doctors Without Borders Infected with Ebola, Nine Dead
http://www.jems.com/article/news/16-members-doctors-without-borders-infec
and that the doc decided on his own to NOT follow the protocols… (of which OBAMA and other DEMS do not want to quarantine, restrict, etc. people)
Interim Guidance for Monitoring and Movement of Persons with Ebola Virus Disease Exposure
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/monitoring-and-movement-of-persons-with-exposure.html
yes. he “self monitored” but if you read carefully, he did NOT contact places he should have contacted, but decided to hang off doing so and self monitor until he was sick enough THEN call them
given his exposure level, and what the CDC document says:
Public Health Actions
Consideration as a probable case
Medical evaluation using infection control precautions for suspected Ebola, consultation with public health authorities, and testing if indicated
If air transport is clinically appropriate and indicated, only air medical transport (no travel on commercial conveyances permitted)
If infection control precautions are determined not to be indicated: conditional release and controlled movement until 21 days after last known potential exposure
basically as far as i can tell, he said to himself:
Self, i am a doctor, and so that constitutes medical evaluation, i will then self monitor, and if sick, call people
ie. the rules as written dont apply to me, as i am a liberal, and such rules are only imposed on those special others who need them
under
Asymptomatic
Conditional release and controlled movement until 21 days after last known potential exposure
he didnt want that…
now he may have murdered his fiance…
Some Risk of Exposure
Other close contact with an EVD patient in health care facilities or community settings
Asymptomatic or clinical criteria not met
Conditional release and controlled movement until 21 days after last known potential exposure
Fever WITH OR WITHOUT other symptoms consistent with EVD
Consideration as a probable case
Medical evaluation using initial infection control precautions for suspected Ebola, consultation with public health authorities, and testing if indicated
If air transport is clinically appropriate and indicated, air medical transport only (no travel on commercial conveyances permitted)
If infection control precautions are determined not to be indicated: Conditional release and controlled movement until 21 days after last known potential exposure
Conditional release
Conditional release means that people are monitored by a public health authority for 21 days after the last known potential Ebola virus exposure to ensure that immediate actions are taken if they develop symptoms consistent with EVD during this period. People conditionally released should self-monitor for fever twice daily and notify the public health authority if they develop fever or other symptoms.
Controlled movement
Controlled movement requires people to notify the public health authority about their intended travel for 21 days after their last known potential Ebola virus exposure. These individuals should not travel by commercial conveyances (e.g. airplane, ship, long-distance bus, or train). Local use of public transportation (e.g. taxi, bus) by asymptomatic individuals should be discussed with the public health authority. If travel is approved, the exposed person must have timely access to appropriate medical care if symptoms develop during travel. Approved long-distance travel should be by chartered flight or private vehicle; if local public transportation is used, the individual must be able to exit quickly.
Artfldgr:
I’m not so sure about whether those rules actually did apply to him. I went to the link you gave, and it says this [emphasis mine]:
My guess is that he was wearing protective gear at all times while having contact. Therefore I don’t think those rules would have applied to him.
I’m in a hurry and doing this quickly, so perhaps I missed something. But that’s what I saw on quick perusal. He did not have what they define as “close contact,” and until he exhibited symptoms these would have been the rules for him:
Hatchets need to be registered — if not confiscated; they are so 18th Century, anyway.
This prohibition should also extend to sawed-off axes.
People for the Protection of Cherry Trees.
%%%%
At least one Canadian has proposed that the national government accelerate the travels of any jihadis that want to tour Syria.
Revoking passports is simply bad policy.
We have entered the rabbit hole, and there seems to be no bottom to the insanity. Some of my extended family are wondering if we should all cram into the Minnesota cabin and quarantine ourselves. I have squashed that idea for now as I see the disruption to our daily lives unwarranted at this point. We will all have to revisit the idea if the insanity goes exponential.
Attacking three armed cops with a hatchet? That’s either indicative of death-by-cop syndrome and/or simple stupidity.
BTW, my deceased brother in law spent a number of years in Saudi Arabia in some sort of a medical technician capacity and when he got back he was adamant in his perception of utter stupidity being the norm in the Mideast.
parker,
Preparation for self-imposed quarantine is the way to be prepared for pandemic conditions and, the bottom of the rabbit hole is a glass parking lot.
BTW, I greatly enjoyed John Ross’ “Unintended Consequences”, thanks.
GB,
We are all prepared, probably better so than most of the people who consider themselves preppers. Our daughter and her nuclear family are less so as they live, work and go to private schools in Chicago. I do worry about them for a variety of reasons. Otherwise, we are all by nature and upbringing prepared. Btw, John Ross is an incredible marksman. I’m pretty good myself, but in terms of speed and accuracy Ross is up there with Jeff Cooper, Elmer Keith, and the other AAA shooters.
No one else–even family members of Thomas Eric Duncan, who were exposed without protection when he was far sicker than Dr. Spencer is–has gotten it. That indicates to me that the disease’s contagiousness starts very low and rises quickly and exponentially but certainly not immediately.
Which means that people who got it when the virus was in low density, will take longer to express the symptoms.
GB,
About the bottom of of the rabbit hole being a glass parking lot, lets hope its located in mecca.
Re stupidity being the norm in the Middle East (Israel excepted), I worked on a medical book about mental deficiencies/retardation of various kinds, and the chief cause by far is inbreeding.
So study after study after study featured patient populations of, you guessed it, Muslims: because they have an extremely high rate of first-cousin incestuous marriages. The IQ suffers markedly as a result.
The researchers didn’t call attention to this, but the footnotes told the tale.
Enough years ago, the term “hatchet man” meant a Chinese Tong enforcer/killer. Soooooooooooooooooo, howze come hatchet man ain’t raaaaacist?
People don’t self-quarantine, and they don’t report full-blown ebola cases because they are in denial. That natural human instinct is to believe “If I don’t admit it, then it isn’t true”
Neo,
The big assumption you make here is that we are being told about the extent of the contagion. While the news that Duncan’s close contacts in Dallas are not infected would be reassuring, the gatekeepers of information are in the tank for Obama and the Democrats and would want to keep news of an out-of-control pandemic bottled up until after they retained control of the Senate in the midterm elections.
If the news remains reassuring after the elections take place, then I’ll breathe a sigh of relief.